On March 4, 2025, the United States ushered in a new era of trade policy as President Donald Trump’s long-promised tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada officially took effect. The 25% tariffs, applied to nearly all goods crossing the northern and southern borders, mark a significant escalation in the administration’s efforts to address illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. While the policy aims to pressure America’s closest neighbors into stricter border enforcement, it’s the American consumer who may feel the most immediate sting—particularly at the grocery store. From avocados to beef, a wide range of staple foods are poised to become more expensive as the costs of these tariffs ripple through supply chains and hit household budgets.
The United States, Mexico, and Canada form one of the world’s most integrated economic regions, bound together by decades of trade agreements like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its successor, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). These agreements have fostered a system where goods—especially agricultural products—flow freely across borders, keeping prices stable and shelves stocked. Mexico and Canada are the U.S.’s top two trading partners, supplying everything from fresh produce to meat and grains that Americans rely on daily. With the imposition of these tariffs, that delicate balance is now under threat, and the fallout is likely to be felt most acutely in the food sector.
Why Tariffs Mean Higher Food Prices
At their core, tariffs are taxes imposed by governments on imported goods. In this case, the 25% levy on Mexican and Canadian imports is paid by U.S. companies bringing those goods into the country—not by the foreign governments or producers, as some might assume. These companies, facing higher costs, have two primary options: absorb the expense and take a hit to their profits, or pass it along to consumers in the form of higher prices. For industries like food retail, where profit margins are notoriously thin—often hovering around 1-2%—absorbing a 25% cost increase is rarely feasible. Instead, experts predict that much of this burden will land squarely on shoppers.
The timing couldn’t be worse. Grocery prices in the U.S. have already risen sharply in recent years, with food costs up roughly 25% since pre-COVID levels. Inflation-weary consumers, many of whom supported Trump’s campaign promises to lower living costs, may now face a paradoxical reality: a policy intended to protect American interests could instead exacerbate the very price pressures they hoped to escape. The interconnected nature of North American trade means that disrupting imports from Mexico and Canada isn’t just a matter of swapping out suppliers—it’s a shock to a system that’s been optimized for efficiency and affordability.
The Foods Most Likely to Cost More
So, which foods are most at risk of price hikes? The answer lies in the outsized role Mexico and Canada play in feeding America. Together, these countries accounted for nearly $83 billion of the $196 billion in agricultural imports to the U.S. in 2023, according to historical data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Their proximity, favorable growing conditions, and trade agreements have made them indispensable suppliers of fresh produce, meat, dairy, and grains. Here’s a closer look at the key categories likely to see price increases:
- Avocados
Few foods symbolize America’s reliance on Mexico more than the avocado. Mexico supplies over 85% of the avocados consumed in the U.S., shipping millions of pounds weekly to meet demand for guacamole, toast toppings, and salads. In the lead-up to major events like the Super Bowl, that figure spikes even higher—often exceeding 70 million pounds in a single week. A 25% tariff on Mexican avocados could push retail prices from an average of $1.50-$2 per fruit to $2-$2.50 or more, depending on how much of the cost importers and retailers pass on. For a product with such inelastic demand—avocado lovers aren’t easily deterred—consumers may have little choice but to pay up. - Tomatoes, Peppers, and Other Fresh Vegetables
Mexico is the U.S.’s largest supplier of fresh vegetables, accounting for over 77% of imports in some categories. Tomatoes, bell peppers, cucumbers, and leafy greens are among the staples that cross the border year-round, especially during winter months when domestic production slows. A 25% tariff could add 50 cents or more to the price of a pound of tomatoes, currently averaging around $2, with similar increases expected for other produce. Given that grocery stores operate on razor-thin margins, these costs are almost certain to trickle down to shoppers. - Berries
Strawberries, raspberries, and blackberries are another Mexican export powerhouse, with the U.S. importing over $2 billion worth annually. These fruits thrive in Mexico’s climate, making it a cost-effective supplier during off-seasons for U.S. growers. A 25% tariff could boost the price of a $4 pint of strawberries to $5 or higher, a jump that could strain budgets for families already grappling with rising food costs. - Beef and Livestock
Canada and Mexico both play critical roles in the U.S. meat supply chain. Canada is a leading exporter of beef and pork, while Mexico sends over 1 million cattle annually to U.S. feedlots for slaughter. With beef prices already near record highs—thanks to drought, high feed costs, and supply chain disruptions—a 25% tariff could push retail prices up by $1-$2 per pound. For a $10 pound of ground beef, that’s a potential jump to $12 or more, hitting consumers at a time when protein costs are already a pain point. - Poultry and Eggs
Canada supplies significant amounts of poultry and eggs to the U.S., particularly in regions like the Midwest. Recent bird flu outbreaks have already driven egg prices skyward, with a dozen large eggs averaging $3-$4 nationally. A 25% tariff could add another 75 cents to $1 per dozen, further squeezing households reliant on this affordable protein source. - Grains and Cereals
Canada is a dominant player in exporting grains like wheat, barley, and oats to the U.S., much of which ends up in bread, cereal, and baked goods. While the U.S. produces its own grains, Canadian imports help stabilize prices and meet demand. A 25% tariff could increase the cost of a $3 loaf of bread by 50 cents or more, with ripple effects felt across the bakery aisle. - Dairy Products
Canada’s dairy industry, though tightly regulated, sends cheese, milk powder, and other products south of the border. With U.S. milk production strained by bird flu and rising costs, a 25% tariff on Canadian dairy could drive up prices for cheese (currently $5-$6 per pound) by $1 or more, adding to the cost of everything from pizza to sandwiches. - Beer and Alcohol
Beyond traditional foods, tariffs will likely hit imported beverages hard. Mexico is a major source of beer—think Corona, Modelo, and Dos Equis—while Canada supplies spirits like whisky. The U.S. imported over $5 billion in tequila and mezcal from Mexico in 2024 alone. A 25% tariff could raise the price of a $15 six-pack of Mexican beer to $18-$19, while a $30 bottle of tequila might climb to $37 or higher.
The Broader Economic Ripple Effects
The impact of these tariffs won’t stop at the grocery store. Food prices are interconnected with other sectors—restaurants, for instance, rely heavily on the same Mexican and Canadian imports. A $10 burrito could become a $12 burrito as eateries pass on higher ingredient costs. Meanwhile, retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico, already in motion as of March 4, could hurt U.S. exporters, driving up domestic food prices further as American farmers lose key markets.
Canada has announced 25% tariffs on $20 billion worth of U.S. goods, while Mexico is expected to follow suit. These retaliatory measures could target U.S. agricultural exports like corn, soybeans, and pork, potentially raising production costs for American farmers and reducing supply at home. The result? A feedback loop of higher prices that could negate any short-term gains from Trump’s tariff strategy.
Can the U.S. Pivot to Domestic Alternatives?
One argument in favor of the tariffs is that they might encourage domestic production, reducing reliance on foreign imports. But agriculture isn’t a light switch you can flip on overnight. Planting new avocado groves in California or expanding cattle herds in Texas takes years, not months, and comes with significant costs. Climate constraints also limit where certain crops can grow—tomatoes and berries, for instance, thrive in Mexico’s year-round warmth, while U.S. production is seasonal and weather-dependent.
Even if domestic output ramps up, it’s unlikely to fully offset the loss of Mexican and Canadian imports in the near term. The U.S. has leaned on its neighbors for decades precisely because their proximity and efficiency keep costs low. Sourcing alternatives from farther afield—like South America or Europe—would introduce higher shipping costs and logistical hurdles, potentially negating any savings.
The Human Cost: Who Feels the Pinch?
For the average American household, these price increases could translate to hundreds of dollars in added annual expenses. Estimates suggest the tariffs could cost families anywhere from $930 to $2,000 per year, depending on how much of the cost is passed on. Low-income households, already spending a larger share of their income on food, will be hit hardest. A single mother buying $50 worth of groceries each week could see that bill rise to $60 or $65—a 20-30% increase that strains already tight budgets.
Ironically, the tariffs come at a time when Trump’s base—many of whom voted for him to tackle inflation—may feel betrayed by the outcome. Social media sentiment on platforms like X reflects growing unease, with users lamenting the prospect of $5 avocados and $12 steaks. The administration insists the tariffs are a necessary tool to secure borders and protect American lives from fentanyl, but the economic trade-off may test voters’ patience.
Looking Ahead: A New Normal?
As of March 4, 2025, the tariffs are in place with no clear end date. Trump has tied their removal to unspecified progress on immigration and drug trafficking, leaving businesses and consumers in limbo. Economists warn that prolonged tariffs could spark a broader trade war, destabilizing the North American economy and driving inflation higher just as the Federal Reserve works to cool it.
For now, Americans can brace for a more expensive trip to the supermarket. Avocados, tomatoes, beef, and beer are just the start—every aisle could soon reflect the cost of this bold policy gamble. Whether the tariffs achieve their geopolitical aims remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the price of dinner is going up.
